A, no te taka o te tāra? Me pēhea te ki te tātari i te āhuatanga i runga i te mākete moni me matau: ka hinga i te tāra ara ranei?

tāra US ki te RUPO he tino iu i roto i nga tau tata nei i muri i te raruraru 2008-2009. Kua hinga US moni i roto i te utu tino. I te 2013 me te tīmatanga o 2014 - kua tupu ano a reira. tohunga Market whakapono e te āhuatanga, te whakahoki ki te pātai o ka hinga ranei te tāra me te, e tākiekina e te whānuitanga o ngā āhuatanga, e rua ōhanga me te tōrangapū.

Ko te utu o te hinu

E ai ki te tetahi tirohanga, te tāra ki te RUPO i 2014, ka rerekē nui. Te ara koi i roto i te moni US kia haere tahi i te whakaiti äta o te tūranga o te monipuka Russian. Te RUPO, kia rite ki ngā tohunga, ko te nuinga ti'aturi i runga i utu hinu. Ko te teitei ko reira, te tāra ngoikore. Ki te taka te utu hinu, kua ki te utu mo te mämä i roto i te pūtea, e mimiti haere te wāriu te RUPO, ki te āwhina i roto i ki te kaweake o "koura mangu" muri te kāwanatanga Russian.

Heoi, raraunga ōhanga pai e haere mai ana i te US me te EU ara āta i roto o te ōhanga roa, mea e ka noho utu hinu i te nui taumata (a tawhio noa $ 100 ia oko). Ko te RUPO reira whakapakaritia öhanga Western ātete. I roto i te 2014, ka koi tango utu hinu te akoranga i runga i te heke, te moni Russian i muri i tenei whanaunga iti ki te US. Ki te i runga i te anga ke - ka anake i reira ki te tatari noa ka hinga i te tāra.

RUPO - e kore e ngoikore

He ko he tirohanga e te RUPO Russian, rite te katoa, ehara i te mea he moni ngoikore. E ai ki whakatau tata o nga kaitautoko o tenei tuhituhinga, kua whakakaha te tuhipoka pēke motu to tatou whenua mo te 10 tau whakamutunga i te 60% i roto i ngā tūturu. Ki te, hei tauira, te tangata o enei tau katoa, i puritia penapena i roto i moni, āta riro ratou. I te wa ano, rite te whakapakaritanga o te moni Russian, whakapono economists, maoro,, ka hei utu reira i roto i. Ahakoa te rōrahi nui o tāwāhi wahie, te Päkehä ki kupenga o te moni (i roto i te puka o te utu, translations) he iti. Te ōhanga Russian, te kupu, e taea ite i i tenei raruraru, a RUPO, rite ki te hua, ka hoki mai i te tāra "te manakohia" o te mua.

Tonu, "rakau"

Ētahi tohunga whakapono e te RUPO - ki te moni, ki te mea te reira uaua i te māia: me pehea ki te whakahihi tāra ka hinga whakatika te pēke tuhipoka Russian ranei - ki te matapae uaua. Kati te reira ki te haamana'o i te 90, ka i te momeniti tino kāore i taea e meinga te RUPO kore e tu te "pepa" i roto i te tetahi mea. He maha rawa ngā āhuatanga tuku iho mana i runga i te auau whakawhiti Russian: ko reira te utu o te hinu, ko te kaupapa here o te Central Bank i pā ana ki te pūnaha pēke, he whanonga o CB tūmataiti.

Matapae mō te 2014 e kore e te tau whakahaere tikanga i roto i devalued te RUPO te - te nuinga no te mea tomo Russia te WTO, kia kia whakatika i te wahi o kawemai, me production kāinga - iti. He tatauranga: te mutunga o 2013 tae te ūropi 45 moni, i tetahi i roto i 2012, i whakaaro te mehua rite taea. Na reira e kore e taea e tatou e whakahaere tikanga i roto i te whakanui ake i te auau ki te 50 wae o te moni Russian mo te kotahi Pākehā. I roto i tahuri, te ōhanga US i roto i nga tau tata nei, i reira he tohu o stabilization, me tohunga i roto i te pā ana ki te tära e atu rorotu.

hanga te reira i kore tikanga ki te kohuki

Ahakoa te meka e noho fakatu'atamaki tohunga mākete e pā ana ki te RUPO, kahore tetahi tino kore e tohutohu ki te haumi i roto i te moni US rite te ahua o penapena. He ko he putanga e te taupori o āwenewene whakawehi pepa karangatia o economists, me te whakawera o ngā hau me te afa'ifa'i parau mo te whakaaro anake - ki te whakapataritari hoko tangata Russian rite taea rōrahi nui o US moni. Enei "rangatira" o monipuka - e kore Kamupane, me tahatika pokapū. Ko ratou te hunga whakatau, ina hinga te tāra, a ka tupu ake ia.

He he he wāhi ngā o te tirohanga: ki te ka taea ki te whai i tetahi mana ki runga ki to tatou Central Bank, e te mahi tonu, kaua, e pupuri i te ngākau nuitanga o te oligarchs, e kore te iwi nga mua, "ngā" kia haere ki raro, ki te 30 moni i te mutunga o 2014. Ano, etahi tohunga fakamamafa'i - ara, ki te reira ko te ino koi i roto i ngā āhuatanga ōhanga, te tikanga o te kāwanatanga i te Fund Rahui, i reira te "kararehe" o e pā ana ki 5 trillion moni. Ko te nui ki te taupoki ana i te tarepa pūtea rawa nui.

Tiro rorotu

E ai ki te mātakitaki o te maha o ngā tohunga i roto i te akoranga o te moni hokohoko kitea whakamutunga marama wāhanga, ka te Central Bank o Russia e kore e whakahaere i tetahi wawaotanga whakawhiti ke. Ko te akoranga o nga monipuka motu, ko te kupu, hinga ana ki te pera-ka karanga "kauhanga kūpapa" ka kore e mea faufaa te Central Bank: ka whakatika te tāra ranei hinga. e kore e nui "Bi-moni kete" utu i tenei wāhi te faufaa tino mo te Central Bank o te uara o 41 moni. He āhuatanga taketake, me te natulá whanonga atu o te moni Russian ki te tāra me te ūropi.

No nia i te tuatahi - i reira ko te hua nui i roto i te hokohoko toenga o Russia. Ko te nuinga o tika ana ki ake te āhuatanga pūtea o whenua rohe ūropi, i ko te hoa ōhanga matua o to tatou whenua tenei. Waitohungia te ECB e kia tupu GDP o te rohe i te 1.1% i te mutunga o 2014. Ka rite ki te hua, kia meinga ai he hua i roto i te tono mō ngā rauemi wahie o Russia, me te he hua i roto i o ratou utu. I tua atu, i te vaivai o te RUPO ki te tāra me te ūropi, i puta i roto i 2014, i roto i te meka, te whakapai ake i te toenga hokohoko o nga whakawhetai whenua ki te whakauru kawemai hohe. Heoi ehara i te mea i te meka e te noho mahi Russian, me te tatari, ka taka te tāra.

Whika i te State

Russian Manatū Ōhanga matapae e te RUPO (i roto i ngā whai hua tūturu) i roto i te 2014 e haaparuparu i te 7.4% (i ki etahi wa i mua whakaiti i te tātaitanga utu i 1.5%). kauwhautia tenei ahua i ki te taumata Minita teitei. I roto i te 2015, ka taea e rite Development Economic whakakaha te moni Russian whakapono e 0.2% i roto i te 2016 - 1.1%, me te iti ake i roto i 2017 - 0.1%. Ko te RUPO ki te tāra i te 2014, kia rite ki te ti'amâraa, i roto i te toharite ā-tau i 36.3 wae (rite ki 33.9 runga i te tātai o mua). I roto i te 2015, he "toa" tūmanakohia, te ki te utu 38.8 monipuka Russian, i 2016 tata te taua - 38.7, i 2017, rawa, kahore tetahi huringa - 38,5.

whakapono hoki Manatū Ōhanga e te utu toharite o te oko o masivesivá hinu ka nui ake Urals pahi ki 104 tara, a i roto i 2015-2016. taka ki te 100 wae o te moni US. I roto i te 2017, tohu te "koura mangu", rite ki te pokapū ki te hinga i roto i te utu ki runga ki te 98 tara ia oko. e kore pea e miharo te kāwanatanga i reira e hinga i te tāra i roto i te utu.

Ko te whika i kaitätari

E ai ki te matapae o te pēke haumi UBS, te ōhanga Russian i roto i 2014 ka tupu i te% 1.5 anake o nāianei (mea i roto i ngā tātai o mua ngā te ahua o 2.5%), i roto i te 2015 - 2% (i mua tūmanakohia 2 , 8%). Nā ki te wäriu o te whakakitenga o te āhuatanga pūtea i roto i to tatou whenua, titau kaitätari e te faanahoraa nama, e "rua moni" kete, i whakahuatia i runga ake, e kia utu 44.2 moni i te mutunga o 2014 (i huaina i mua te ahua o 40.7 wae moni Russian).

No nia i te hononga tū o te tāra me te ūropi i te mutunga o 2014, e titau UBS kaitätari e ka utu 1 kōwae o te moni American 1.25 monipuka Pākehā. Ko tenei te pakeke te i roto i te rārangi ki te tūmanako i runga i RUPO (37.6 ia tāra e Hakihea 2014). I roto i 2015 te ūropi ki te whakapono i roto i UBS «toa", hinga i roto i te utu ki te taumata o 1.20. kaitätari o te pēke titau e kore te pēke pokapū Russian ka wawao i moni hokohoko, engari e kore e whakahaere tikanga i roto i taua e riro i te kaupapa here moni o te Central Bank inäianei. Otiia i roto i o ratou matapae he tata kahore otinga wahi i runga i te whanaketanga o to tatou ōhanga ina taka te tāra.

tauwehe Ukrainian

e kore e tohunga Russian whakakino i te āhuatanga i roto i Ukraine, me te tāra US i roto i te pā ana ki te whanonga o te moni motu o te whenua tata - te moni motu. Te Monetary Fund International kite te auau whaitake o 10.5-11 wae o te pitopito kōrero pareparenga ki te "koati". He he ano hoki te tauira e fakatu'atamaki i roto i nei te tāra e taea whakatika ki te 12-13 hryvnia. I roto i te take - te ara i roto i utu hau mo Ukraine, te ähua hokohoko hononga ki Russia, e taea e tīmata toenga te whenua o o utu takarepa, me te arahi ki te wāriu o te hryvnia. take nui o te kaupapa here o te IMF.

Ki te mea ka hoatu e te pūtea Ukraine he taurewa, moni motu te whenua o ki te tāra e whakakaha. taea ki te waiho i te tohu pai ki pūtea i ki waho me kaipakihi Tranche i te IMF he. Ko tētahi atu tohu pai - huru o te feia faatere o Russia me te United States whai wāhi ki te taumira o te āhuatanga i roto i te whenua i roto i te teihana takawaenga. Ko te kēmu tōrangapū - he matatini rawa ki te mohio mo te tino e hinga ranei te tāra i Ukraine i te tukanga.

matapae tūpato

Tohunga tohu atu e ki te mārama me pēhea e whakahaere hāngai te tāra i runga i "akoranga heke mai", e mea ohie - te whakawhetai ki te meka e te Central Bank o Russia kaikauwhau i te auau utu o te ra kia rite ki te e pā ana mō te apopo. Ko nui atu uaua ki te hanga matapae wā roa-a mea mo te tino reira ina e hinga i te tāra te ūropi ranei, e taea e kore. US tāra pāpātanga whakawhiti i roto i te pā ana ki Russia he tino ti'aturi i runga i rua ngā rōpū o ngā āhuatanga. Tuatahi, ko reira, pera me taua, ko te kaha o te RUPO. Tei te reira i runga i te āhuatanga i roto i te ōhanga Russian me ngā tukanga tōrangapū. Tuarua - te tāra ki ētahi atu Moni ao (ina koa te ūropi), ki te matapae i te uara e ngāwari o e. Na reira, kei te tohutohu kaitätari kaitākaro mākete rawa nui whakawhirinaki i roto i matapae wā roa-e pā ana ki te whanonga o te monipuka American.